As the price of crude oil has bottomed out and the next year looks uncertain. so does the fate of countries that rely solely on crude oil for everything. This is the case in Nigeria but we knew this a long time ago that it was only a matter of when not if, a situation like this was theoretically imminent and practically inevitable. What is surprising though is the fact that Nigeria seems to be surprised that this is happening. If so, then we are welcome to the world of unlimited possibilities and obvious realities.
If indeed oil is the only language that unites all the regions of the country, and the common denominator with which everything is accessed, then maybe it is time to renegotiate the deal on the table and decide if and how Nigeria as a nation will continue to exist and operate in the next generation. While certain sections of the country are not happy about the price of crude oil, there are other areas that are indifferent due in part, to negative effects of oil, oil spillage and oil exploration in their communities, the environment and human life in those geographical spaces that have now been doomed with oil. For them, while others see oil and the proceed of oil sales as blessing, they see it as a curse. And all of us are to blame for this ugly experience of theirs.
Who would have thought that availability of oil in any space could be a curse. That is what obtains when inequalities and inequities go on unchecked. If indeed there is opportunity to make wishes and experiment on ideas in the Nigerian geopolitical space, I would suggest that crude oil should remain at zero dollar for a long time. I believe that will be of benefit to the country and all of Africa for a number of good reasons
You cannot go wrong with Agriculture and Africa is the last hope for humanity in this aspect, because she has vast arable soil that is rich in minerals and nutrients. Unless we mechanize and invest in agriculture, we risk famine, which is going to be worse than corona. Several countries have no crude oil yet they are doing way better than Nigeria in all ramifications. It seems that oil has been more of a curse than a blessing to us. It is time to engage the next gear.
Solid minerals and natural resources are deposited in large quantities all over the places in Africa, including Nigeria. Ajaokuta steel was supposed to be the largest steel manufacturing factory in Africa. What happened to that plan? How much has been budgeted and plunged into this white elephant project? At what stage of competition is it? Even if it is completed today, at what capacity can it run and by how many trillion has it been over budgeted? The greatest enemy of Nigeria seems to be the leaders of Nigeria.
Nigeria is blessed with Human Resources in their shapes and forms, with all manner of skills and talents, yet a vast majority is unemployed and therefore not able to contribute to national development. Investment in Human Resources means better funding for education; respect for human right; creation of jobs; promoting and creating enabling environment for entrepreneurship; promoting local manufacturing and discouraging unreasonable importation of all manner of things including match sticks and toilet papers; identifying, encouraging and harnessing of skills and talents that are distributed in the population…and respect for human life which is hitherto absent.
Not only is the pseudo-federalism practiced in Nigeria design, fabricated and based on lies, deceit, manipulation, inequalities and all manner of fraud; the leaders are redundant and incapable of creative thinking because all they have done is redistribute oil blocks and reshuffle government cabinets, give them account numbers and police them to ensure that money is being paid into the specified account per time. Not only do they not know how much oil is generated, they have no clue how many barrels are sold a day. The same way they have no idea exactly how many people live in Nigeria even though so much money is spent on census, the government has no idea how many tankers of crude petroleum leaves the shores of Nigeria each day. How ridiculous? How can analog people lead digitalized people?
Nigeria without oil will be a Nigeria where leaders will go back to the negotiation tables and make use of their brains. We have to come up with Nigeria’s solution to NIgeria’s problems. It will be good if, before we elect new leaders we demand that they present manifestos. As an undergraduate at the University of Nigeria Nsukka, we conducted much better elections than the country…what a shame! What happens in Nigeria during elections is a joke…if that is democracy, no country should be doomed with that nonsense. It is a caricature of democracy as theoretically defined.
Even if we still have oil and oil prices come up, it will be paradigm shifting to let anybody or group of persons who campaign for any position tell us what they plan to do and how they plan to run the affairs and business of governance without recourse to oil or oil stipends from Abuja. Enough of running up to Abuja and looking at the president for tips. Unfortunately our kind of democracy over-empowers the individual and under-empowers the institutions if indeed they do exist.
Time and space will not allow me to go into all the details, but I must not forget to lament that while other country leaders use their own brains to solve problems, we use ours to create and encourage chaos in society. I know this is not what you want to hear but unless Nigeria begins to think and act in ways that de-emphasize oil and over-dependence on oil, the next generation of criminals will be sophisticated and digitalized….if we think there is insecurity now, we haven’t seen anything yet. Fix and diversify the economy, get your people educated and gainfully employed, encourage entrepreneurship and take no more loans from China. How difficult are these?
Our population will continue to increase geometrically but our economic activities are not diversified and robust enough to carter for the population. And how do we not see the danger in this malady? The world is moving away from oil and Nigeria still base annual budget and projections for new debts on oil…how has the 2020 budget faired? When would we wake up from this deep slumber?
The earlier government gets started the better. It will definitely get worse before it gets better but I think we need to pay attention to the other three dozen export ready natural resources we could harness and build a robust economy that will be famine proof…and disaster proof…else we are headed for what could be a post corona depression.
…to be continued !
Mezie Okolo is a pharmacist, an epidemiologist and a leadership analyst @mezieokolo.com